Most likely 1–1
Model read
The model reads this as a near coin-flip. With Elo 37 points apart (Türkiye 1916, United States 1879), it estimates 41% / 26% / 33% (home win / draw / away win) and a most-likely 1–1, with both teams to score 53% likely.
A strength-only Elo estimate — it doesn't account for lineups, injuries, form or weather.
Scoreline probabilitiesOur model · Elo→Poisson
Derived from the same grid
- Both teams to score53%
- Türkiye clean sheet30%
- United States clean sheet25%
- Türkiye win-to-nil22%
Model estimate
10,000 simulated matchesOur model · Elo→Poisson
- Türkiye0 (0%)
- Draw0 (0%)
- United States0 (0%)
Marker = exact model %
Each match samples goals from the model's expected-goal rates (1.39 vs 1.21). The simulated split matches the exact analytic forecast — a live, fixed-seed visualization of the same math.
seed 4079141280 · reproducible
Model convictionOur model · Elo→Poisson
Balanced · 2/100How concentrated the three outcome probabilities are. 0 = anything could happen, 100 = near-certain.
Form — actual World Cup 2026 results
- L0–1vs Paraguay
- L0–2@ Australia
- W2–0vs Australia
- W4–1vs Paraguay
Head-to-head (World Cup 2026 only)
These sides haven't met yet at this tournament — this would be their first World Cup 2026 meeting.
Squad · 26 players
No lineup is published or predicted — this is the full registered squad.
- 1
Mert GünokFenerbahçeAge 37
37/0 - 12
Altay BayındırManchester UnitedAge 28
12/0 - 23
Uğurcan ÇakırGalatasarayAge 30
39/0
- 2
Zeki ÇelikRomaAge 29
61/3 - 3
Merih DemiralAl-AhliAge 28
62/6 - 4
Çağlar SöyüncüFenerbahçeAge 30
60/2 - 13
Eren ElmalıGalatasarayAge 25
23/0 - 14
Abdülkerim BardakcıGalatasarayAge 31
27/2 - 15
Ozan KabakTSG HoffenheimAge 26
30/2 - 18
Mert MüldürFenerbahçeAge 27
45/3 - 20
Ferdi KadıoğluBrighton & Hove AlbionAge 26
30/2 - 25
Samet AkaydinÇaykur RizesporAge 32
19/1
- 5
Salih ÖzcanBorussia DortmundAge 28
30/1 - 6
Orkun KökçüBeşiktaşAge 25
50/4 - 10
Hakan ÇalhanoğluCInter MilanAge 32
105/22 - 16
İsmail YüksekFenerbahçeAge 27
32/1 - 22
Kaan AyhanGalatasarayAge 31
73/5
- 7
Kerem AktürkoğluFenerbahçeAge 27
52/15 - 8
Arda GülerReal MadridAge 21
29/6 - 9
Deniz GülPortoAge 21
8/2 - 11
Kenan YıldızJuventusAge 21
28/5 - 17
İrfan Can KahveciKasımpaşaAge 30
47/6 - 19
Yunus AkgünGalatasarayAge 25
19/4 - 21
Barış Alper YılmazGalatasarayAge 26
35/4 - 24
Oğuz AydınFenerbahçeAge 25
11/0 - 26
Can UzunEintracht FrankfurtAge 20
6/1
Squads as officially announced; ages as of June 11, 2026.
Common questions
- Who will win Türkiye vs United States?
- Our Elo model estimates Türkiye 41%, draw 26%, United States 33% — most likely 1–1. A transparent model estimate (not betting odds), graded against the real result.
- When does Türkiye vs United States kick off?
- Friday, June 26, 2026 at 2:00 AM UTC — your local kickoff time is shown above.
- Where is Türkiye vs United States played?
- SoFi Stadium in Inglewood.