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World Cup Pulse
Brazil
1–1
FT
Morocco
Jun 13, 2026, 10:00 PM UTCMetLife Stadium · East Rutherford
Model estimateModel missed it
45%BrazilDraw 26%Morocco29%

Most likely 1–1

Model read

The model reads this as a near coin-flip. With Elo 70 points apart (Brazil 2062, Morocco 1992), it estimates 45% / 26% / 29% (home win / draw / away win) and a most-likely 1–1, with both teams to score 52% likely.

A strength-only Elo estimate — it doesn't account for lineups, injuries, form or weather.

Scoreline probabilitiesOur model · Elo→Poisson

↓ BrazilMorocco →
Less likelyMore likely
Most likely 1–1 · 12%. Exact values from the model's full scoreline grid — not a sampled simulation. Tap any cell for its probability.

Derived from the same grid

  • Both teams to score52%
  • Brazil clean sheet32%
  • Morocco clean sheet23%
  • Brazil win-to-nil25%

Model estimate

10,000 simulated matchesOur model · Elo→Poisson

  • Brazil0 (0%)
  • Draw0 (0%)
  • Morocco0 (0%)

Marker = exact model %

Each match samples goals from the model's expected-goal rates (1.48 vs 1.13). The simulated split matches the exact analytic forecast — a live, fixed-seed visualization of the same math.

seed 816255053 · reproducible

Model convictionOur model · Elo→Poisson

Balanced · 3/100

How concentrated the three outcome probabilities are. 0 = anything could happen, 100 = near-certain.

Form — actual World Cup 2026 results

Brazil
  • W3–0vs Haiti
  • D1–1vs Morocco
Morocco
  • W1–0@ Scotland
  • D1–1@ Brazil

Head-to-head (World Cup 2026 only)

Brazil · 0W · 1D · 0L

  • D1–1Morocco

Squad · 26 players

Who featured

From the match timeline — goals, cards and substitutions — not a confirmed lineup.

Goalkeepers
Defenders
Midfielders
Forwards

Squads as officially announced; ages as of June 11, 2026.

Common questions

Who will win Brazil vs Morocco?
Our Elo model estimates Brazil 45%, draw 26%, Morocco 29% — most likely 1–1. A transparent model estimate (not betting odds), graded against the real result.
When does Brazil vs Morocco kick off?
Saturday, June 13, 2026 at 10:00 PM UTC — your local kickoff time is shown above.
Where is Brazil vs Morocco played?
MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford.