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World Cup Pulse
Haiti
0–1
FT
Scotland
Jun 14, 2026, 1:00 AM UTCGillette Stadium · Foxborough
Model estimateModel called it
19%HaitiDraw 24%Scotland58%

Most likely 0–1

Model read

The model reads this as a near coin-flip. With Elo 174 points apart (Haiti 1689, Scotland 1863), it estimates 19% / 24% / 58% (home win / draw / away win) and a most-likely 0–1, with both teams to score 48% likely.

A strength-only Elo estimate — it doesn't account for lineups, injuries, form or weather.

Scoreline probabilitiesOur model · Elo→Poisson

↓ HaitiScotland →
Less likelyMore likely
Most likely 0–1 · 13%. Exact values from the model's full scoreline grid — not a sampled simulation. Tap any cell for its probability.

Derived from the same grid

  • Both teams to score48%
  • Haiti clean sheet18%
  • Scotland clean sheet42%
  • Scotland win-to-nil35%

Model estimate

10,000 simulated matchesOur model · Elo→Poisson

  • Haiti0 (0%)
  • Draw0 (0%)
  • Scotland0 (0%)

Marker = exact model %

Each match samples goals from the model's expected-goal rates (0.86 vs 1.74). The simulated split matches the exact analytic forecast — a live, fixed-seed visualization of the same math.

seed 3597638076 · reproducible

Model convictionOur model · Elo→Poisson

Balanced · 12/100

How concentrated the three outcome probabilities are. 0 = anything could happen, 100 = near-certain.

Form — actual World Cup 2026 results

Haiti
  • L0–3@ Brazil
  • L0–1vs Scotland
Scotland
  • L0–1vs Morocco
  • W1–0@ Haiti

Head-to-head (World Cup 2026 only)

Haiti · 0W · 0D · 1L

  • L0–1Scotland

Squad · 26 players

Who featured

From the match timeline — goals, cards and substitutions — not a confirmed lineup.

Goalkeepers
Defenders
Midfielders
Forwards

Squads as officially announced; ages as of June 11, 2026.

Common questions

Who will win Haiti vs Scotland?
Our Elo model estimates Haiti 19%, draw 24%, Scotland 58% — most likely 0–1. A transparent model estimate (not betting odds), graded against the real result.
When does Haiti vs Scotland kick off?
Sunday, June 14, 2026 at 1:00 AM UTC — your local kickoff time is shown above.
Where is Haiti vs Scotland played?
Gillette Stadium in Foxborough.