Most likely 1–1
Model read
The model reads this as a near coin-flip. With Elo 51 points apart (Algeria 1869, Austria 1920), it estimates 31% / 26% / 43% (home win / draw / away win) and a most-likely 1–1, with both teams to score 52% likely.
A strength-only Elo estimate — it doesn't account for lineups, injuries, form or weather.
Scoreline probabilitiesOur model · Elo→Poisson
Derived from the same grid
- Both teams to score52%
- Algeria clean sheet24%
- Austria clean sheet31%
- Austria win-to-nil24%
Model estimate
10,000 simulated matchesOur model · Elo→Poisson
- Algeria0 (0%)
- Draw0 (0%)
- Austria0 (0%)
Marker = exact model %
Each match samples goals from the model's expected-goal rates (1.17 vs 1.43). The simulated split matches the exact analytic forecast — a live, fixed-seed visualization of the same math.
seed 1686702716 · reproducible
Model convictionOur model · Elo→Poisson
Balanced · 2/100How concentrated the three outcome probabilities are. 0 = anything could happen, 100 = near-certain.
Form — actual World Cup 2026 results
- L0–3@ Argentina
- W3–1vs Jordan
Head-to-head (World Cup 2026 only)
These sides haven't met yet at this tournament — this would be their first World Cup 2026 meeting.
Squad · 26 players
No lineup is published or predicted — this is the full registered squad.
- 1
Melvin MastilStade NyonnaisAge 26
3/0 - 16
Oussama BenbotUSM AlgerAge 31
4/0 - 23
Luca ZidaneGranadaAge 28
7/0
- 2
Aïssa MandiLilleAge 34
120/9 - 3
Achref AbadaUSM AlgerAge 27
9/1 - 4
Mohamed Amine TougaiEspérance de TunisAge 26
31/2 - 5
Zineddine BelaïdJS KabylieAge 27
13/1 - 13
Jaouen HadjamYoung BoysAge 23
19/3 - 15
Rayan Aït-NouriManchester CityAge 25
31/0 - 17
Rafik BelghaliHellas VeronaAge 24
14/1 - 21
Ramy BensebainiBorussia DortmundAge 31
82/9 - 26
Samir CherguiParis FCAge 27
6/0
- 6
Ramiz ZerroukiTwenteAge 28
54/3 - 8
Houssem AouarAl-IttihadAge 27
23/6 - 10
Farès ChaïbiEintracht FrankfurtAge 23
32/3 - 14
Hicham BoudaouiNiceAge 26
35/0 - 19
Nabil BentalebLilleAge 31
62/6 - 22
Ibrahim MazaBayer LeverkusenAge 20
18/2 - 24
Yacine TitraouiCharleroiAge 22
5/0
- 7
Riyad MahrezCAl-AhliAge 35
117/38 - 9
Amine GouiriMarseilleAge 26
24/12 - 11
Anis Hadj MoussaFeyenoordAge 24
16/3 - 12
Nadhir BenboualiGyőri ETOAge 26
5/1 - 18
Mohamed AmouraVfL WolfsburgAge 26
48/19 - 20
Adil BoulbinaAl-DuhailAge 23
11/4 - 25
Farès GhedjemisFrosinoneAge 23
1/1
Squads as officially announced; ages as of June 11, 2026.
Common questions
- Who will win Algeria vs Austria?
- Our Elo model estimates Algeria 31%, draw 26%, Austria 43% — most likely 1–1. A transparent model estimate (not betting odds), graded against the real result.
- When does Algeria vs Austria kick off?
- Sunday, June 28, 2026 at 2:00 AM UTC — your local kickoff time is shown above.
- Where is Algeria vs Austria played?
- Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City.