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World Cup Pulse
Australia
2–0
FT
Türkiye
Jun 14, 2026, 4:00 AM UTCBC Place · Vancouver
Model estimateModel called it
42%AustraliaDraw 26%Türkiye32%

Most likely 1–1

Model read

The model reads this as a near coin-flip. With Elo 40 points apart (Australia 1956, Türkiye 1916), it estimates 42% / 26% / 32% (home win / draw / away win) and a most-likely 1–1, with both teams to score 53% likely.

A strength-only Elo estimate — it doesn't account for lineups, injuries, form or weather.

Scoreline probabilitiesOur model · Elo→Poisson

↓ AustraliaTürkiye →
Less likelyMore likely
Most likely 1–1 · 12%. Exact values from the model's full scoreline grid — not a sampled simulation. Tap any cell for its probability.

Derived from the same grid

  • Both teams to score53%
  • Australia clean sheet30%
  • Türkiye clean sheet25%
  • Australia win-to-nil23%

Model estimate

10,000 simulated matchesOur model · Elo→Poisson

  • Australia0 (0%)
  • Draw0 (0%)
  • Türkiye0 (0%)

Marker = exact model %

Each match samples goals from the model's expected-goal rates (1.40 vs 1.20). The simulated split matches the exact analytic forecast — a live, fixed-seed visualization of the same math.

seed 1951401955 · reproducible

Model convictionOur model · Elo→Poisson

Balanced · 2/100

How concentrated the three outcome probabilities are. 0 = anything could happen, 100 = near-certain.

Form — actual World Cup 2026 results

Australia
  • L0–2@ United States
  • W2–0vs Türkiye
Türkiye
  • L0–1vs Paraguay
  • L0–2@ Australia

Head-to-head (World Cup 2026 only)

Australia · 1W · 0D · 0L

  • W2–0Türkiye

Squad · 26 players

Who featured

From the match timeline — goals, cards and substitutions — not a confirmed lineup.

Goalkeepers
Defenders
Midfielders
Forwards

Squads as officially announced; ages as of June 11, 2026.

Common questions

Who will win Australia vs Türkiye?
Our Elo model estimates Australia 42%, draw 26%, Türkiye 32% — most likely 1–1. A transparent model estimate (not betting odds), graded against the real result.
When does Australia vs Türkiye kick off?
Sunday, June 14, 2026 at 4:00 AM UTC — your local kickoff time is shown above.
Where is Australia vs Türkiye played?
BC Place in Vancouver.