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World Cup Pulse
Germany
7–1
FT
Curaçao
Jun 14, 2026, 5:00 PM UTCNRG Stadium · Houston
Model estimateModel called it
85%GermanyDraw 12%Curaçao3%

Most likely 2–0

Model read

The model reads this as a clear edge for Germany. With Elo 421 points apart (Germany 2016, Curaçao 1595), it estimates 85% / 12% / 3% (home win / draw / away win) and a most-likely 2–0, with both teams to score 20% likely.

A strength-only Elo estimate — it doesn't account for lineups, injuries, form or weather.

Scoreline probabilitiesOur model · Elo→Poisson

↓ GermanyCuraçao →
Less likelyMore likely
Most likely 2–0 · 21%. Exact values from the model's full scoreline grid — not a sampled simulation. Tap any cell for its probability.

Derived from the same grid

  • Both teams to score20%
  • Germany clean sheet78%
  • Curaçao clean sheet10%
  • Germany win-to-nil71%

Model estimate

10,000 simulated matchesOur model · Elo→Poisson

  • Germany0 (0%)
  • Draw0 (0%)
  • Curaçao0 (0%)

Marker = exact model %

Each match samples goals from the model's expected-goal rates (2.35 vs 0.25). The simulated split matches the exact analytic forecast — a live, fixed-seed visualization of the same math.

seed 169381202 · reproducible

Model convictionOur model · Elo→Poisson

Lopsided · 55/100

How concentrated the three outcome probabilities are. 0 = anything could happen, 100 = near-certain.

Form — actual World Cup 2026 results

Germany
  • W7–1vs Curaçao
Curaçao
  • L1–7@ Germany

Head-to-head (World Cup 2026 only)

Germany · 1W · 0D · 0L

  • W7–1Curaçao

Squad · 26 players

Who featured

From the match timeline — goals, cards and substitutions — not a confirmed lineup.

Goalkeepers
Defenders
Midfielders
Forwards

Squads as officially announced; ages as of June 11, 2026.

Common questions

Who will win Germany vs Curaçao?
Our Elo model estimates Germany 85%, draw 12%, Curaçao 3% — most likely 2–0. A transparent model estimate (not betting odds), graded against the real result.
When does Germany vs Curaçao kick off?
Sunday, June 14, 2026 at 5:00 PM UTC — your local kickoff time is shown above.
Where is Germany vs Curaçao played?
NRG Stadium in Houston.