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World Cup Pulse
South Korea
2–1
FT
Czechia
Jun 12, 2026, 2:00 AM UTCEstadio Akron · Zapopan
Model estimateModel called it
52%South KoreaDraw 25%Czechia23%

Most likely 1–0

Model read

The model reads this as a near coin-flip. With Elo 126 points apart (South Korea 1904, Czechia 1778), it estimates 52% / 25% / 23% (home win / draw / away win) and a most-likely 1–0, with both teams to score 50% likely.

A strength-only Elo estimate — it doesn't account for lineups, injuries, form or weather.

Scoreline probabilitiesOur model · Elo→Poisson

↓ South KoreaCzechia →
Less likelyMore likely
Most likely 1–0 · 12%. Exact values from the model's full scoreline grid — not a sampled simulation. Tap any cell for its probability.

Derived from the same grid

  • Both teams to score50%
  • South Korea clean sheet37%
  • Czechia clean sheet20%
  • South Korea win-to-nil30%

Model estimate

10,000 simulated matchesOur model · Elo→Poisson

  • South Korea0 (0%)
  • Draw0 (0%)
  • Czechia0 (0%)

Marker = exact model %

Each match samples goals from the model's expected-goal rates (1.61 vs 0.99). The simulated split matches the exact analytic forecast — a live, fixed-seed visualization of the same math.

seed 3112515849 · reproducible

Model convictionOur model · Elo→Poisson

Balanced · 7/100

How concentrated the three outcome probabilities are. 0 = anything could happen, 100 = near-certain.

Form — actual World Cup 2026 results

South Korea
  • L0–1@ Mexico
  • W2–1vs Czechia
Czechia
  • D1–1vs South Africa
  • L1–2@ South Korea

Head-to-head (World Cup 2026 only)

South Korea · 1W · 0D · 0L

  • W2–1Czechia

Squad · 26 players

Who featured

From the match timeline — goals, cards and substitutions — not a confirmed lineup.

Goalkeepers
Defenders
Midfielders
Forwards

Squads as officially announced; ages as of June 11, 2026.

Common questions

Who will win South Korea vs Czechia?
Our Elo model estimates South Korea 52%, draw 25%, Czechia 23% — most likely 1–0. A transparent model estimate (not betting odds), graded against the real result.
When does South Korea vs Czechia kick off?
Friday, June 12, 2026 at 2:00 AM UTC — your local kickoff time is shown above.
Where is South Korea vs Czechia played?
Estadio Akron in Zapopan.