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World Cup Pulse
Mexico
2–0
FT
South Africa
Jun 11, 2026, 7:00 PM UTCEstadio Azteca · Mexico City
Model estimateModel called it
84%MexicoDraw 13%South Africa3%

Most likely 2–0· +80 Elo host advantage applied (Mexico at home)

Model read

The model reads this as a clear edge for Mexico. With Elo 332 points apart (Mexico 1988, South Africa 1656), it estimates 84% / 13% / 3% (home win / draw / away win) and a most-likely 2–0, with both teams to score 21% likely.

A strength-only Elo estimate — it doesn't account for lineups, injuries, form or weather.

Scoreline probabilitiesOur model · Elo→Poisson

↓ MexicoSouth Africa →
Less likelyMore likely
Most likely 2–0 · 20%. Exact values from the model's full scoreline grid — not a sampled simulation. Tap any cell for its probability.

Derived from the same grid

  • Both teams to score21%
  • Mexico clean sheet76%
  • South Africa clean sheet10%
  • Mexico win-to-nil69%

Model estimate

10,000 simulated matchesOur model · Elo→Poisson

  • Mexico0 (0%)
  • Draw0 (0%)
  • South Africa0 (0%)

Marker = exact model %

Each match samples goals from the model's expected-goal rates (2.33 vs 0.27). The simulated split matches the exact analytic forecast — a live, fixed-seed visualization of the same math.

seed 467448794 · reproducible

Model convictionOur model · Elo→Poisson

Lopsided · 53/100

How concentrated the three outcome probabilities are. 0 = anything could happen, 100 = near-certain.

Form — actual World Cup 2026 results

Mexico
  • W1–0vs South Korea
  • W2–0vs South Africa
South Africa
  • D1–1@ Czechia
  • L0–2@ Mexico

Head-to-head (World Cup 2026 only)

Mexico · 1W · 0D · 0L

  • W2–0South Africa

Squad · 26 players

Who featured

From the match timeline — goals, cards and substitutions — not a confirmed lineup.

Goalkeepers
Defenders
Midfielders
Forwards

Squads as officially announced; ages as of June 11, 2026.

Common questions

Who will win Mexico vs South Africa?
Our Elo model estimates Mexico 84%, draw 13%, South Africa 3% — most likely 2–0. A transparent model estimate (not betting odds), graded against the real result.
When does Mexico vs South Africa kick off?
Thursday, June 11, 2026 at 7:00 PM UTC — your local kickoff time is shown above.
Where is Mexico vs South Africa played?
Estadio Azteca in Mexico City.