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World Cup Pulse
Czechia
1–1
FT
South Africa
Jun 18, 2026, 4:00 PM UTCMercedes-Benz Stadium · Atlanta
Model estimateModel missed it
52%CzechiaDraw 25%South Africa23%

Most likely 1–0

Model read

The model reads this as a near coin-flip. With Elo 122 points apart (Czechia 1778, South Africa 1656), it estimates 52% / 25% / 23% (home win / draw / away win) and a most-likely 1–0, with both teams to score 50% likely.

A strength-only Elo estimate — it doesn't account for lineups, injuries, form or weather.

Scoreline probabilitiesOur model · Elo→Poisson

↓ CzechiaSouth Africa →
Less likelyMore likely
Most likely 1–0 · 12%. Exact values from the model's full scoreline grid — not a sampled simulation. Tap any cell for its probability.

Derived from the same grid

  • Both teams to score50%
  • Czechia clean sheet37%
  • South Africa clean sheet20%
  • Czechia win-to-nil30%

Model estimate

10,000 simulated matchesOur model · Elo→Poisson

  • Czechia0 (0%)
  • Draw0 (0%)
  • South Africa0 (0%)

Marker = exact model %

Each match samples goals from the model's expected-goal rates (1.60 vs 1.00). The simulated split matches the exact analytic forecast — a live, fixed-seed visualization of the same math.

seed 4135659554 · reproducible

Model convictionOur model · Elo→Poisson

Balanced · 6/100

How concentrated the three outcome probabilities are. 0 = anything could happen, 100 = near-certain.

Form — actual World Cup 2026 results

Czechia
  • D1–1vs South Africa
  • L1–2@ South Korea
South Africa
  • D1–1@ Czechia
  • L0–2@ Mexico

Head-to-head (World Cup 2026 only)

Czechia · 0W · 1D · 0L

  • D1–1South Africa

Squad · 26 players

Who featured

From the match timeline — goals, cards and substitutions — not a confirmed lineup.

Goalkeepers
Defenders
Midfielders
Forwards

Squads as officially announced; ages as of June 11, 2026.

Common questions

Who will win Czechia vs South Africa?
Our Elo model estimates Czechia 52%, draw 25%, South Africa 23% — most likely 1–0. A transparent model estimate (not betting odds), graded against the real result.
When does Czechia vs South Africa kick off?
Thursday, June 18, 2026 at 4:00 PM UTC — your local kickoff time is shown above.
Where is Czechia vs South Africa played?
Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta.