Skip to content
World Cup Pulse
Mexico
1–0
FT
South Korea
Jun 19, 2026, 1:00 AM UTCEstadio Akron · Zapopan
Model estimateModel called it
57%MexicoDraw 24%South Korea19%

Most likely 1–0· +80 Elo host advantage applied (Mexico at home)

Model read

The model reads this as a near coin-flip. With Elo 84 points apart (Mexico 1988, South Korea 1904), it estimates 57% / 24% / 19% (home win / draw / away win) and a most-likely 1–0, with both teams to score 48% likely.

A strength-only Elo estimate — it doesn't account for lineups, injuries, form or weather.

Scoreline probabilitiesOur model · Elo→Poisson

↓ MexicoSouth Korea →
Less likelyMore likely
Most likely 1–0 · 13%. Exact values from the model's full scoreline grid — not a sampled simulation. Tap any cell for its probability.

Derived from the same grid

  • Both teams to score48%
  • Mexico clean sheet41%
  • South Korea clean sheet18%
  • Mexico win-to-nil34%

Model estimate

10,000 simulated matchesOur model · Elo→Poisson

  • Mexico0 (0%)
  • Draw0 (0%)
  • South Korea0 (0%)

Marker = exact model %

Each match samples goals from the model's expected-goal rates (1.71 vs 0.89). The simulated split matches the exact analytic forecast — a live, fixed-seed visualization of the same math.

seed 3422192951 · reproducible

Model convictionOur model · Elo→Poisson

Balanced · 11/100

How concentrated the three outcome probabilities are. 0 = anything could happen, 100 = near-certain.

Form — actual World Cup 2026 results

Mexico
  • W1–0vs South Korea
  • W2–0vs South Africa
South Korea
  • L0–1@ Mexico
  • W2–1vs Czechia

Head-to-head (World Cup 2026 only)

Mexico · 1W · 0D · 0L

  • W1–0South Korea

Squad · 26 players

Who featured

From the match timeline — goals, cards and substitutions — not a confirmed lineup.

Goalkeepers
Defenders
Midfielders
Forwards

Squads as officially announced; ages as of June 11, 2026.

Common questions

Who will win Mexico vs South Korea?
Our Elo model estimates Mexico 57%, draw 24%, South Korea 19% — most likely 1–0. A transparent model estimate (not betting odds), graded against the real result.
When does Mexico vs South Korea kick off?
Friday, June 19, 2026 at 1:00 AM UTC — your local kickoff time is shown above.
Where is Mexico vs South Korea played?
Estadio Akron in Zapopan.